Can Better Data Keep the Promise of Rapid Methane Reductions Alive?

In the race to lower greenhouse gases to limit global warming, reducing methane emissions can lead to faster and more substantial progress toward climate goals in the near term. Methane’s global warming potential is 27-30 times greater than carbon dioxide (CO2) in the long term but can be more than 80 times greater in the first 20 years after the pollutant is released into the atmosphere. 

Methane mitigation delivers more for the investment, in terms of lessening climate damages, than comparable reductions in CO2 emissions. What’s more, industries such as natural gas operations, mining, landfills, and agriculture can capture their methane emissions to produce energy, generating revenue and cutting operating costs while avoiding putting those emissions into the atmosphere. 

The promise of methane reductions is real but are we capturing the benefits?

Reversing the Troubling Trend of Rising Methane Emissions

Climate science tells us that we must drastically reduce methane emissions by 2030 to have a chance of meeting the Paris Agreement goal of limiting global warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, or well below 2°C. The Global Methane Pledge, launched in November 2021, set a target of reducing human-caused methane by 30% by 2030, relative to 2020 levels.

Although we’ve made progress in understanding, tracking, and monitoring methane emissions, we are not on course to meet that global goal. Instead, methane emissions rose substantially between 2020 and 2023. Globally, effective mitigation has been hampered by limited funding and insufficient political will. Even though methane is responsible for about 30% of global warming since the Industrial Revolution, as of 2020, finance for methane mitigation measures represented less than 2% of total climate financial flows (approx. $11 billion). Funding and commitments are increasing but are still well below the estimated US$110 billion needed annually. 

In the past, policy makers assumed that methane’s energy potential would drive voluntary mitigation measures, but that hasn’t happened to a meaningful degree. Given the urgent need for abatement, countries are now beginning to craft and enforce new regulations to move the needle on methane emission reductions. In the U.S., for example, the EPA imposed a waste emissions charge of $900 per ton of methane emissions this year, increasing to $1,500 by 2026. However, this charge—based on the estimated cost to global society in climate damages from premature deaths, impairments to health and productivity, property losses, and other impacts—currently applies only to petroleum and natural gas facilities that emit more than 25,000 metric tons of CO2 equivalent per year.

Given insufficient voluntary action and the limited scope of current regulations, it’s clear that a more robust and ambitious approach is urgently needed to address methane emissions effectively. This is where the role of data becomes critical.

The Data Gap and Its Impact on Global Methane Reduction Pledges and Policies

To make meaningful progress, we must pivot towards embracing accurate, near real-time data that can guide mitigation strategies, policy decisions, and enforcement. Data-driven strategies allow us to pinpoint the most significant sources of methane emissions, measure their impact more precisely, and implement targeted interventions.

Historically, tracking methane emissions has been challenging due to self-reporting and the large diversity of sources. Methane is emitted from oil and gas (O&G) production and numerous activities that are essential to modern life. Accurately calculating these emissions is difficult, especially in agriculture, solid waste management, and wastewater treatment, due to tremendous spatial and temporal variability in how these activities are performed. 

This challenge is evident in the self-reported point source data submitted to the EPA. Data collected by MethaneAIR through earth observation have raised questions about the reliability of self-reporting by O&G companies. In fact, actual methane emissions from O&G wells have been found to be four times higher than EPA estimates and eight times more than the industry’s own target for emissions intensity.

Understanding and monitoring methane emissions helps to identify sources, assess the effectiveness of mitigation strategies, and support data-informed development of climate policies and regulations. If more methane is being emitted than is currently being measured or estimated, there is a great risk that current pledges and policies are insufficient to meet the Paris Agreement goal and that more aggressive mitigation strategies are needed. 

Advancing Data-Driven Methane Solutions

Fortunately, a data revolution is coming with the launch of new powerful satellites (MethaneSat, Carbon Mapper) that track methane emissions from O&G basins in much of the world. The data they produce will be publicly available, supporting greater transparency and accountability. Similar data could eventually be collected from the waste sector and other point sources. Satellite data offer promising new opportunities to promptly identify emissions and prioritize mitigation strategies and provide top-down estimates to better inform the bottom-up EPA estimates.

Satellite data are most useful for creating spatially continuous estimates. For greatest accuracy, remotely sensed methane emissions data must be assimilated/calibrated using other observations and model estimates—just as weather data are—to arrive at a more precise understanding of methane emissions. The assimilated/calibrated data can then inform more reliable baselines from which to target more ambitious mitigation strategies. 

We Must Act Now to Tackle the Methane Challenge

By focusing on accurate measurement, increased investment, and stronger policies, we can make substantial progress in reducing global methane emissions. With better data, we can focus investments on effective sector-based solutions. 

Our ability to meet climate goals depends on recognizing and addressing the urgency of the methane problem, and to act expeditiously and ambitiously. 

Learn more about RTI’s methane expertise and capabilities 
Learn more about RTI’s Center for Climate Solutions