National Evaluation of Project Safe Neighborhoods

Findings from the evaluation of this important federal program will lead to a better understanding of successful crime reduction strategies.

Project Safe Neighborhoods

Since 2001, the U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) has directed and funded the Project Safe Neighborhoods (PSN) program, aimed at identifying, addressing, and preventing violent crime in local areas across the country. PSN is one of the DOJ and federal government’s premier violent crime reduction programs. In 2017, DOJ introduced an enhanced PSN model (PSN 2.0) wherein U.S. Attorneys’ Offices (USAOs) across the nation’s 94 federal judicial districts received funding and support to lead PSN efforts. In 2021, DOJ introduced an updated model as part of its violence reduction strategy (PSN 2.1).

In 2020, the National Institute of Justice selected RTI, in partnership with the Justice Information Research Network (JIRN), to evaluate the effectiveness of the PSN program in reducing violent crime and increasing the prosecution of violent felons.

Because districts face different violent crime issues and have different law enforcement, government, and community resources, PSN provides a framework for USAOs to work in partnership with local law enforcement and community groups to more effectively combat and prevent local violent crime. 

From one district to the next, PSN programs vary greatly in the geographic areas and crimes of focus. Some districts focus on specific neighborhoods within cities and specific crimes like gang violence, while others focus on the entire district and all firearm-related crime. Despite this diversity, all districts participating in the program at the time of the evaluation shared common goals and implemented the key elements of the 2021 PSN model: 

• Community engagement, prevention, and intervention to reduce future violence
• Focused and strategic enforcement
• Collecting and using data to guide decision-making on enforcement and prevention efforts

RTI's Project Safe Neighborhoods Evaluation

The key objectives of the PSN evaluation were to:

• Assess the implementation and outcomes of PSN at the national level and in 10 selected case study districts
• Develop findings, materials, and reports that benefit local PSN practitioners and federal personnel who administer PSN
• Disseminate findings to practitioners, policymakers, and researchers through scholarly products and presentations
• Submit all resulting data sets and supporting documentation for future replication and reanalysis by other researchers

The evaluation team sought to understand how PSN is implemented locally, with a focus on the key elements of the enhanced and updated PSN models. For the national assessment, we used information from USAO grant reports, surveys, and interviews of USAO staff and PSN partners. In the 10 case study sites, RTI and JIRN researchers held monthly calls with PSN site coordinators and conducted virtual and in-person site visits to interview PSN stakeholders and observe program activities.

The outcome evaluation compared trends in violent crimes and federal prosecutions during and across four different time periods that accounted for the introduction of PSN 2.0, the COVID-19 pandemic, and the transition to PSN 2.1. For the national assessment, the evaluation spanned the years 2015 through 2023 and included as examination of trends across all judicial districts and a comparison of trends in large cities of 100,000 or more where PSN was implemented versus those where it was not.

The outcome evaluation also examined changes in crime as a function of differences in local PSN implementation. In case study districts, the evaluation team used the cutting-edge “augmented synthetic control” method to assess changes in violent crime rates in each PSN city compared with changes in non-PSN areas that were carefully selected and weighted to closely resemble the PSN areas in prior crime rates and community characteristics. 

Findings and Implications

The evaluation revealed that PSN contributed to reductions in violent crime, particularly in high crime cities, though limitations in data and external factors precluded definitive attribution of these reductions solely to PSN. Key findings and recommendations include:

• Strengthening Community Engagement: Community-focused efforts were inconsistently implemented across districts. Enhacing partnerships with community-based organizations and investing in trust-building initiatives could improve program outcomes.
• Enhancing Accountability and Data-Driven Strategies: Districts that prioritized accountability, such as using data to refine strategies, experienced greater reductions in violent crime. Expanding data infrastructure and formalizing research partnerships can support more effective decision-making.
• Targeted Enforcement and Prosecution: Strategies like focusing on individuals who are at greatest risk of committing violent crimes, leveraging National Integrated Ballistic Information Network (NIBIN) data, and imposing longer federal sentences for firearm-related crimes were associated with steeper declines in violent crime in the national assessment. Continued emphasis on these approaches, coupled with improved coordination between federal and local prosecutors, is recommended.
• Addressing Implementation Variability: Districts varied widely in their implementation of PSN, with 57% classified as high-performing and 43% as low-performing based on a comprehensive multi-source robustness measure developed as part of the evaluation. Providing additional support to struggling districts, such as expanding roles like Community Outreach Specialists and Victim-Witness Specialists, could enhance program consistency.
• Improving Data Collection for Nonfatal Shootings: Existing data from the FBI's Uniform Crime Reports lack sufficient detail to analyze nonfatal shootings comprehensively. Developing a standardized national data collection for firearm-related crimes would address critical gaps and support future evaluations.

The evaluation of Project Safe Neighborhoods underscores the importance of evidence-based, collaborative approaches to reducing violent crime. Through our evaluation of the implementation and efficacy of the PSN program, RTI is contributing to the continued success and optimization of the federal government’s efforts to promote public safety. The findings provide the USAOs and their partners, the Department of Justice (DOJ), and Congress with the vital empirical information necessary for continuing to improve the efficacy of violent crime reduction strategies in the U.S. 

Since the completion of the evaluation in 2025, USAO districts have continued to refine their PSN strategy on both contextual factors unique to the district and updated guidance from the DOJ. Those activities and their impact will need to be studies through future evaluations.