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Estimates of presumed population immunity to SARS-CoV-2 by state in the United States, August 2021
Stoner, M. C. D., Angulo, F. J., Rhea, S., Brown, L. M., Atwell, J. E., Nguyen, J. L., McLaughlin, J. M., Swerdlow, D. L., & MacDonald, P. D. M. (2022). Estimates of presumed population immunity to SARS-CoV-2 by state in the United States, August 2021. Open Forum Infectious Diseases, 9(2), Article 647. https://doi.org/10.1093/ofid/ofab647
Background: Information is needed to monitor progress toward a level of population immunity to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) sufficient to disrupt viral transmission. We estimated the percentage of the US population with presumed immunity to SARS-CoV-2 due to vaccination, natural infection, or both as of August 26, 2021.
Methods: Publicly available data as of August 26, 2021, from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention were used to calculate presumed population immunity by state. Seroprevalence data were used to estimate the percentage of the population previously infected with SARS-CoV-2, with adjustments for underreporting. Vaccination coverage data for both fully and partially vaccinated persons were used to calculate presumed immunity from vaccination. Finally, we estimated the percentage of the total population in each state with presumed immunity to SARS-CoV-2, with a sensitivity analysis to account for waning immunity, and compared these estimates with a range of population immunity thresholds.
Results: In our main analysis, which was the most optimistic scenario, presumed population immunity varied among states (43.1% to 70.6%), with 19 states with ≤60% of their population having been infected or vaccinated. Four states had presumed immunity greater than thresholds estimated to be sufficient to disrupt transmission of less infectious variants (67%), and none were greater than the threshold estimated for more infectious variants (≥78%).
Conclusions: The United States remains a distance below the threshold sufficient to disrupt viral transmission, with some states remarkably low. As more infectious variants emerge, it is critical that vaccination efforts intensify across all states and ages for which the vaccines are approved.
