Uncovering Ghost Guns: Informing Policy and Law Enforcement Solutions

This is the final blog in a series of four blog posts intended to educate the public and policymakers about online activity related to ghost guns in terms of marketing, sales, assembly, acquisition, communications, and intentions. Blogs 1, 2, and 3 dive deeper into these trends, why they matter, and how they can be used to inform policy and law enforcement solutions.

Improving Research Approaches to Address the Ghost Gun Issue

In our blog series on ghost gun conversations taking place on social media, we have described how ghost guns (or privately manufactured firearms, “PMFs”) represent a present and growing challenge for the regulation, prevention, and response to firearm-related violent crime in the US. We also picked one social media site, Reddit in this instance, identified the most popular ghost gun subreddits, and described the types of conversations taking place relevant to ghost gun construction and sales. We applied an age algorithm to a selection of ghost gun Reddit threads and determined that the large majority of these conversations were predicted to be taking place among people under 21 years of age. 

Throughout this series, we have discussed the data limitations which have made it challenging to fully describe the ghost gun market in the US. In this 4th and final blog in the series, we describe additional research approaches that have the potential to improve understanding around this issue and contribute to relevant evidence-based public policy. 

Based on our study of ghost guns as described in this series and from reports released by the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives (ATF) and the National Policing Institute (NPI), we have identified the following research prompts as being the most promising and/or important for policymakers and law enforcement to consider. 

Understanding the Demand: Why are certain people interested in owning ghost guns in addition to or instead of traditional firearms?

Understanding the consumer market for ghost guns is key to developing and enforcing fair and effective ghost gun policies and regulations, yet, to date, much of our understanding of ghost gun possessors comes from interviews with people convicted of ghost gun-related crimes. Researchers and policymakers do not have much additional insight into the licit or illicit reasons for owning ghost guns and how often that is motivating ghost gun possessors. 

As discussed throughout this blog series, we know very little about the general population of people who own ghost guns or are interested in owning ghost guns. We also do not know if these weapons are treated the same as other firearms (i.e. if they are used and stored similarly, how often they change hands, etc.). All of this information is needed for effective policymaking and enforcement.      

Identifying and interviewing ghost gun owners is challenging and time consuming. A method for keeping a pulse on one facet of the ghost gun market is through continued online tracking, like the exploratory study described in this blog series which has focused on understanding Reddit trends and conversations. 

In past work related to analyzing and understanding vaping trends, RTI developed online trackers for local stakeholders to follow market trends in real time. Google Search Trends, X, Instagram, and YouTube were also assessed to follow developments in the consumer market over time (Figure 1). These tactics could be easily translated to the ghost guns landscape. Through topic analysis, we can understand how conversations related to ghost guns are trending and how online posters are reacting to sentinel events, like new legislative policies. This is a relatively inexpensive method to begin understanding the consumer market and can be used to inform surveys and key stakeholder interviews going forward.

Understanding the Supply: How and where are ghost gun transactions taking place in the US?

The exploratory study described in this blog series makes it clear that ghost guns and firearm accessories, such as machine gun conversion devices (MCDs) that are uniformly illegal across the US, are being supplied to the market through a complex web of licit and illicit sources. Some of these are suppliers that take the form of online firearm gun shops and specialize in selling ghost guns directly to consumers; others take the form of e-commerce sites (i.e. eBay, Etsy, and DHGate) and sell a wide variety of products. 

A landscape analysis and tracking of these sellers could yield data on product availability, diversity, pricing, branding, and marketing strategies, as well as efforts to skirt authorities or deceive potential clientele. These data can be harmonized with data from social media sites and key informant interviews that describe and evaluate products from different sellers to understand consumer preferences. Understanding this source data can inform regulatory and enforcement efforts.

Understanding the Consequences: How often and under what circumstances are ghost guns being used to commit violent crime?

Ghost guns are increasingly prevalent in violent crimes, but this phenomenon is much more prevalent in certain states (e.g., California). Historically, part of the challenge in tracking ghost guns has been a lack of officer training in ghost gun recognition and reporting methods. As these capabilities develop, improve, and become more standardized, a longstanding challenge is that law enforcement data are largely siloed. 

However, there are existing structures in place that may help agencies rapidly share ghost gun data. For example, Project Safe Neighborhoods (PSN) is a nationwide program that creates and encourages cross-sector communication and strategizing in all 94 federal judicial districts. Many PSN sites collect real-time crime gun data, which creates opportunities for tracking and disseminating information on emerging topics and trends, like ghost guns and MCDs.

In addition, many agencies share common evidence room vendors. With agency permission, these vendors can access and release near real-time crime gun data, which would allow for more comprehensive geographical tracking of ghost gun-related discoveries and crimes. Understanding the geographical trends associated with ghost guns being used to commit violent crimes could allow policymakers and law enforcement to allocate prevention resources strategically or identify potential correlated risk factors.

The Value of Shared Data Around Ghost Guns

Because ghost guns are a rapidly developing crime gun topic, the dissemination of research results through the traditional academic venues will not allow for nimble policy or program development and response. In this environment, dynamic data dashboards that can communicate trends and be continuously updated, as well as more publicly accessible forms of information sharing such as policy briefs, webinars, and blogs that can be disseminated through traditional and social media, may be appropriate supplements to more traditional academic manuscripts and conference presentations. 

Making the most up-to-date research available to all will help ensure ghost gun policies and law enforcement strategies and responses are most responsive to this dynamic issue, positively impacting community safety.