Techno-economic analysis of low-carbon ammonia and urea production in select African countries

Abstract

African countries import a significant amount of fertilizer leaving them vulnerable to market and geopolitical volatility. This has driven the desire to increase both fertilizer application and domestic fertilizer manufacturing in Africa. Harnessing abundant low-carbon energy sources in African countries to produce fertilizers could be an attractive pathway to domestic fertilizer production while reducing its carbon intensity. However, more country-specific evidence is needed to determine viability and barriers to adoption. We assessed the techno-economic viability of low-carbon ammonia and urea production in Ethiopia, Kenya, Morocco, and Nigeria. Across the countries and renewable energy scenarios modeled, we find that the high cost of capital that reflects high-risk investments to implement these projects is instrumental in driving high costs of fertilizers compared with the retail price of imported urea. However, accounting for the positive development impacts and benefits, investing in establishing domestic green fertilizer production capacity can be a desirable development choice.