Justice involvement prediction as individuals age

Abstract

Objective: Some scholars have criticized pretrial assessments for perpetuating racial bias in the criminal legal system by offering biased predictions of future legal system outcomes. Although these critiques have some empirical support, the scholarship has yet to examine the predictive validity and differential prediction of pretrial assessments across individuals by their age. Following the guidance of the life-course literature, the present study serves as the first age-graded evaluation of the Public Safety Assessment (PSA) focused on assessing whether the predictive validity and scoring predictions of the tool vary across the lifespan. Hypotheses: We expected that the predictive validity of the PSA scores would vary across the lifespan, such that the PSA underpredicts for younger individuals and overpredicts for older individuals. Method: The present study relied on pretrial information collected from 31,527 individuals during the Advancing Pretrial Policy and Research project. Logistic regression models were estimated to evaluate the differential prediction of the PSA for individuals ranging from 18 to 68 years of age. The results of bivariate models were used to produce area under the curve estimates at each year of age. Results: The results of the present study provided some evidence that the PSA differentially predicted pretrial outcomes for individuals from 18 to 68 years of age. Specifically, the predictive validity of the New Criminal Arrest and the New Violent Criminal Arrest scales appears to improve as individuals become older, suggesting that these instruments are better able to predict pretrial outcomes for older individuals relative to younger individuals. Conclusion: The results suggest that the PSA is a valid predictor of pretrial outcomes and that the predictive validity of some PSA scores is impacted by age. These findings suggest that the age of the defendant should be accounted for when interpreting the new criminal arrest and new violent criminal arrest scores. Public Significance Statement<br /> This study suggests that the Public Safety Assessment is slightly better at predicting new criminal arrest and new violent criminal arrest during pretrial for older individuals compared with younger individuals. These results show that further exploration into predictive bias based on age is needed as assessments such as the Public Safety Assessment are used and implemented in jurisdictions across the United States.