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Forecasting the burden of cardiovascular disease and stroke in the United States through 2050—Prevalence of risk factors and disease
A presidential advisory from the American Heart Association
Joynt Maddox, K. E., Kazi, D. S., Aparicio, H., Commodore-Mensah, Y., de Ferranti, S., Dowd, W. N., Elkind, M. S. V., Hernandez, A., Khavjou, O. A., Michos, E. D., Palaniappan, L., Penko, J., Poudel, R., & Roger, V. L. (2024). Forecasting the burden of cardiovascular disease and stroke in the United States through 2050—Prevalence of risk factors and disease: A presidential advisory from the American Heart Association. Circulation, 150(4), e65-e88. Article e65. https://doi.org/10.1161/CIR.0000000000001256
Background: Cardiovascular disease and stroke are common and costly, and their prevalence is rising. Forecasts on the prevalence of risk factors and clinical events are crucial.
Methods: Using the 2015 to March 2020 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey and 2015 to 2019 Medical Expenditure Panel Survey, we estimated trends in prevalence for cardiovascular risk factors based on adverse levels of Life's Essential 8 and clinical cardiovascular disease and stroke. We projected through 2050, overall and by age and race and ethnicity, accounting for changes in disease prevalence and demographics.
Results: We estimate that among adults, prevalence of hypertension will increase from 51.2% in 2020 to 61.0% in 2050. Diabetes (16.3% to 26.8%) and obesity (43.1% to 60.6%) will increase, whereas hypercholesterolemia will decline (45.8% to 24.0%). The prevalences of poor diet, inadequate physical activity, and smoking are estimated to improve over time, whereas inadequate sleep will worsen. Prevalences of coronary disease (7.8% to 9.2%), heart failure (2.7% to 3.8%), stroke (3.9% to 6.4%), atrial fibrillation (1.7% to 2.4%), and total cardiovascular disease (11.3% to 15.0%) will rise. Clinical CVD will affect 45 million adults, and CVD including hypertension will affect more than 184 million adults by 2050 (>61%). Similar trends are projected in children. Most adverse trends are projected to be worse among people identifying as American Indian/Alaska Native or multiracial, Black, or Hispanic.
Conclusions: The prevalence of many cardiovascular risk factors and most established diseases will increase over the next 30 years. Clinical and public health interventions are needed to effectively manage, stem, and even reverse these adverse trends.
