Charting our forest future

Abstract

Forests currently store more carbon in their vegetation and soil than all of the carbon in earth's atmosphere. But how much additional CO2 can be removed and sequestered by forests in the future, and at what cost? This study examines the potential and costs of forest-based mitigation in 215 countries, utilizing a dynamic economic model, FAO data, and new estimates of feasible area and pace of forest restoration. It finds that at a carbon price of $100/tCO2 in 2050, 8 GtCO(2) could be sequestered through forest mitigation activities. Of that total, 38% would come from afforestation and reforestation, 26% from avoided deforestation, and 37% from changes in forest management. The majority of mitigation is expected to come from tropical regions, although this share decreases with higher levels of incentives. In a scenario in which afforestation and reforestation activities are limited to observed historical rates, mitigation potential is up to 42% lower in 2050 under high carbon payments, particularly impacting mitigation in temperate forests. These findings inform the cost and scale of meeting national forest-based mitigation targets, and provide a robust foundation for guiding policymakers in the development of evidence-informed forest-based mitigation actions.